Lengthy Stroll Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

Tingle Creek

Final week we had Cheltenham on our TV screens and 7 days later, Lengthy Stroll Hurdle Day at Ascot supplies us with a pre-Christmas cracker on Saturday.

Regardless of just a few unfortunate outcomes with Malina Woman, Nurse Susan received the column out of bother within the ninetieth minute final Saturday, so let’s hope that type can proceed.

Earlier than we kick on, this week’s column seems a little bit bit totally different. The primary bit will cowl shorter-priced ‘win’ propositions that curiosity me on Saturday whereas the second half will spotlight intriguing each-way performs.


Actual probability for Actual Stone

Embed from Getty Photos

2:40 Haydock – Doyen Star @ 11/4 with BetVictor

ITV Racing is displaying motion from each Haydock and Ascot over the weekend, although earlier than the mainstream cameras flip their consideration to the northern observe, consideration must be given to Doyen Star within the 12:20 at Haydock.

On the time of writing, he’s the outsider of three at 11/4, although he’s formally only one pound behind the market chief, Inedit Star, and he’s rather more unexposed than Nick Kent’s five-year-old.

On simply his second begin over hurdles, the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old beat Crebilly comfortably at Chepstow over two miles; the runner-up gained impressively since off 127, ran properly twice at Cheltenham this season, and now has an official score of 139.

Nonetheless unbeaten! Level winner Doyen Star makes it two from two over hurdles, beating the well-backed Crebilly at @Chepstow_Racing for @Adamkwedge and @EWilliamsRacing… pic.twitter.com/KdgwhCR5Cr

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 3, 2023

Though he pale in his chasing debut, that was within the Grade 2 “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase on his first begin at two-and-a-half miles, so with race health on his facet, and returning to 2 miles, I believe he’s overpriced.

2:05 Haydock – Jagwar @ 15/8 with BetVictor

Quick-forward to 2:05 and Jagwar seems a reduce above the sector on his handicap debut at 2/1.

Though Inthewaterside has didn’t frank the shape, it was an enormous run from the four-year-old over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree as he travelled with loads of velocity however was simply outstayed. With a gap mark of 119, he ought to oblige.

2:40 Haydock – Actual Stone @ 11/8 with William Hill

One other who ought to do the identical is Actual Stone 35 minutes later within the 2:40 at Haydock.

Good when a plan comes collectively.

REAL STONE wins by half the observe to present @BestOfBetsUK readers revenue for the day 😃

Lots extra to run, however a superb begin to the day after Primoz’s disappointment.

Learn extra right here: https://t.co/xcaByno2Qm https://t.co/2bVG9PGCFW

— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) November 25, 2023

He was a facile 20-length winner at Haydock in delicate circumstances final month and regardless of his eight-pound rise within the weights – which seems lenient – Tristan Durrell takes off a useful 5 kilos and he’s a powerful favorite.

3:35 Ascot – Altobelli @ 7/2 with William Hill

Over at Ascot, the Betfair Trade Trophy has been the season-long plan for Altobelli and following his good reappearance over course and distance, there’s no must lose religion at 7/2.

Expectations for his final begin within the Seat Distinctive Handicap Hurdle had been common as he was all the time going to come back on for the outing, but he ran a blinder to complete second and even the third, Dangerous, has since come out and completed second within the Gerry Feilden at Newbury to frank the shape.

Harry Fry is a grasp a readying one for an enormous day and hopefully, that may be the case with this son of Maxios.


Haydock is true for Park

Embed from Getty Photos

12:40 Ascot – Illogical Logic @ 25/1 with William Hill

Having gone by the playing cards just a few instances over, there are just a few each-way angles I’ve landed on that would outrun their odds.

The primary comes from Ascot as I’m taking a small probability of Illogical Logic within the opener for Christian Williams at 25/1.

The five-year-old confirmed loads of promise on his final begin in what was his first try at two-and-a-half miles.

This run got here after two runs over an insufficient journey of two miles, although on all three events he travelled prominently but discovered himself outpaced.

At this time’s step as much as three miles will swimsuit a lot better and with a gap handicap mark of 107, he has the scope to be higher than this mark.

1:30 Haydock – Dr Kananga @ 12/1 with William Hill

Transferring over to Haydock, an early Christmas current could also be coming the best way of Ben Clarke within the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase as Dr Kananga (12/1) is a well-handicapped horse with appropriate circumstances.

The nine-year-old may be very trustworthy having had an prolonged interval within the point-to-point and hunter chase scene, although since working in higher races, he has bolted up at Sandown off a mark of 125 and completed a superb second to Eva’s Oskar at Exeter off 135.

Dr Kananga is imperious within the https://t.co/6JSTuXJPzu Handicap Chase!

An distinctive gallop set by Ben Jones on his mount is much an excessive amount of for his rivals and lands a victory for the Ben Clarke crew 🥇@BenJone04644251 @BenClarkeRacing pic.twitter.com/q6rC4HhxUG

— Sandown Park (@Sandownpark) February 17, 2022

Final season was disappointing, although connections had the plan of making ready him in a hurdles race earlier than an enormous handicap chase tilt on two events.

For instance, he ran in a novice hurdle at Bangor (when second to Maximilian) earlier than a stab on the Becher Handicap Chase, and he then ran within the Grade 2 Status Novices’ Hurdle earlier than he ran within the Kim Muir.

This didn’t work out, however he had wind points all through the marketing campaign, so with a wind-op within the bag and now right down to a mark of 128, he ought to go properly in heavy floor at Haydock.

3:15 Haydock – Bushypark @ 11/1 with William Hill

Within the Haydock finale, there’s purpose to imagine Bushypark may very well be able to go shut for Philip Kirby at 11/1.

His first two begins of the season have lacked positivity, although the handicapper has dropped him a useful six kilos within the handicap to a mark of 115, a full 4 kilos beneath his final profitable mark.

What a efficiency! 👏@PhilKirbyRacing’s Bushypark stays on powerfully to win the @vickersracing North Yorkshire Grand Nationwide Handicap Chase at @CatterickRaces, and produced some sensible leaps en path to victory beneath @TommyDowson 🏇 pic.twitter.com/QrOHfREJvU

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 12, 2023

Moreover, Joe Williamson, who has ridden him to success on two events, claims a useful 5 kilos off his again.

Though he could also be regressing barely, there’s no denying the actual fact he’s very well-handicapped on all of his previous type and his 2/3 round Haydock.

If he can get a straightforward lead from the entrance, he might sail by the delicate circumstances and be exhausting to catch.

Author: Patrick Thomas